Sudan: 3 ways the conflict could possibly end

After the recent ceasefire and lull in fighting, many analysts predict that the conflict in Sudan is far from over.

The BBC spoke with several experts to analyse potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks and months.

Swift military victory

Both sides have their advantages in different phases of conflict, making a swift military victory unlikely. The army is led by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is headed by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The RSF seems to have the upper hand in the central city of Khartoum. However, the army has access to far greater firepower, which could be used against the city. Both sides have external backers that could prolong the fighting.

Prolonged Conflict

The conflict could evolve into a prolonged civil war, particularly with the agitation from those loyal to the former regime of Omar al-Bashir and his National Congress Party, who hold an Islamist ideology. During Bashir's 30-year rule, many well-armed ethnic militias emerged. If these militias take sides, the conflict could widen and become even more dangerous. The potential ethnic element is a cause for concern, and both generals have sought to use it to their advantage.

Peace Deal

Diplomats are trying to get the two generals to agree to extend the ceasefire. However, when it comes to starting peace talks, no one thinks they are likely to start any time soon. A deal will only come from external pressure, as there are too many competing interests, many of them mutually exclusive. There is a fear that if peace talks do not start soon, the conflict could fragment, making it harder to find a resolution.

Overall, the situation in Sudan remains uncertain, with no clear path to peace.

Find out what caused the conflict here

*Pulse Editor's Opinion is the viewpoint of an editor at Pulse. It does not represent the opinion of the organisation Pulse.